Free Cuba Foundation leader predicts end of Castro regime during Trump's first term if President follows through with campaign promise

Trump vs. Hillary 2016, Cuba policy, predictions and promises to keep.

30+ precincts in MDC with highest CA voters concentration show Trump won by 58% and Rubio won by 69%

The Free Cuba Foundation made bold predictions during the 2016 election that were proved true and now a founding leader of the group has made a bold and new prediction. "If Trump keeps his pledge to roll back the Obama Administration's Cuba policy replacing it with one that prioritizes U.S. interests, greater freedom and human rights for Cubans then Cuba will be free without the Castros during President Trump's first four year term," said Augusto Monge of the Free Cuba Foundation. This founding leader of the Free Cuba Foundation went on to say that the New York businessman's initial lukewarm support for the Obama Cuba policy had Cuban American support bottom out at 33% earlier this year. However Mr. Trump's support grew to at least 58% on election day after he had promised to roll back the Obama Administration's Cuba policy and reached out to Cuban American leaders.

If as some claim 570,878 Cuban Americans voted in the 2016 election and Mr. Trump saw a 25 point shift in support that correlates with his announced change in Cuba policy translating to 142,719 additional votes. A total of  331,109 Cuban Americans voted for Mr. Donald Trump on November 8, 2016. 

Considering that President Elect Trump's margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was just 119,970 votes and the argument is not just that Cuban Americans were critical to the New York businessman's victory but that the dramatic increase in support was linked to U.S. Cuba policy and its rejection by a large number of Cuban American voters according to exit polls. The shift in that vote alone, possibly by Cuba policy single issue voters, provided the margin for taking Florida and exceeded it by 22,749 votes.

Throughout 2016 Free Cuba Foundation members challenged the conventional wisdom on Cuba, the Cuban American vote and the 2016 Presidential election in the United States.

There was an attempt by some in the media to explain the low level of support for Donald Trump among Cuban Americans mentioning almost everything else but Cuba policy.  There were also attempts to push the idea that if Mr. Trump rejected the Obama Cuba policy his numbers among Cuban Americans would go even lower. It was a Free Cuba Foundation member that reminded readers of The Miami Herald in May of 2016 that the Republican nominee's troubles with the Cuban American vote had little to do with immigration but a lot to do with his support for the Obama Cuba policy.

However on September 16, 2016 the argument citing the FIU Poll that Cuban Americas supported new Cuba policy was shown to be false when the New York businessman announced that he would roll back the Obama Administration's Cuba policy replacing it with one prioritizing human rights and freedom in Cuba for Cubans. Donald Trump's polling numbers among Cuban Americans began to rise dramatically, despite some Cuban Americans remaining skeptical that this was a late election conversion.

On September 17, 2016 the Free Cuba Foundation reported what the situation had been before the September 16th announcement:

"For the first time ever in a presidential election both major party candidates were backing normalizing relations with the Castro regime. This position would have hurt Republicans more than Democrats because part of their base of Cuban American voters, in Hialeah for example, are working class and vote Republican out of their anti-communism, not economic interests. Until yesterday Cuba policy was going to be a wash in the 2016 presidential election with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump supporting Obama's failed Cuba policy."  

If GOP strategists had bought into the FIU Cuba Poll's claim that the Obama Administration's Cuba policy was supported by a majority of Cuban Americans and adopted a new position then the Cuban American vote would have gone the way of the Chinese American vote from reliably majority Republican to reliably majority Democrat. 

However with Donald Trumps rejection and pledge to roll back the new Cuba policy it was clear that this was a game changer in the Cuban American vote because now there was a clear contrast on this issue. 

“The last time there was a clear choice, a referendum, on U.S. Cuba policy took place between two presidential candidates in 1980, where Jimmy Carter decided to open the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, lifted the travel embargo on Cuba and began direct negotiations with the Castro regime only to be defeated by Ronald Reagan who promised to reverse the policy,” explained Augusto Monge, co founding member of the Free Cuba Foundation. Augusto, also observed that “As in 1980, like today in 2016, the fruits of the normalization policy with the Castro regime are decidedly rotten. The human rights situation in the island has worsened; the regime's subversive influence in Latin America expanded threatening democratic governments friendly to the United States.” 

The Free Cuba Foundation also predicted that this difference between the two candidates on Cuba policy would place the FIU Cuba poll under greater scrutiny:

"This new contrast over Cuba will test the FIU poll of Miami Cubans that claims strong support for Obama's Cuba policy among Cuban Americans.  In stark contrast, Marco Rubio who repudiated the Obama Cuba policy won the Cuban American vote in Miami-Dade County handily even though he lost the rest of Florida in the Republican primary. Trump's about face on Cuba policy is good news for the GOP in South Florida where Cuban Americans upset over the the administration's December 17, 2014 announcement now potentially have a candidate that they can support." 

The results on November 8, 2016 found candidates that rejected Obama's Cuba policy winning their elections in Miami-Dade County. Furthermore statewide Senator Marco Rubio, a tough critic of Obama's Cuba policy, decried by the anti-Embargo lobby as out of touch with his electorate won the state by a larger margin than Mr. Trump and got 69% of the Cuban American vote.

Those who advocate continuing Obama's failed Cuba policy are doing all they can to minimize the role Cuban Americans played in Florida in the November 8, 2016 elections but the emerging facts make it more difficult each day that goes by.  However it is important to recall that these same people in 2014 downplayed how Cuba policy negatively impacted Charlie Crist in the Florida governor's race after he too initially bought into the anti-embargo lobby's siren song and contributed to Rick Scott's second term as the Governor of Florida. 

There is an attempt to look at the vote in Florida and claim that it was the white non-hispanic vote with its increased turn out that won the state for Trump, but that does not negate that if President elect Trump had not courted the Cuban American vote and vowed to roll back the Obama Administration's failed Cuba policy it would have impacted the result. Like it or not facts are facts and the Republican nominees victory margin in Florida was 119,970 votes and the shift in the Cuban American vote for Mr. Trump from 33% support to at least 58% supports translated into at least 142,719 additional votes that made history on November 8, 2016.

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On September 17, 2016 the Free Cuba Foundation published a blog that stated "Obama's Cuba policy to be judged by Cuban Americans at the ballot box." This was because a day earlier Donald Trump who had been lukewarmly supporting President Obama's Cuba policy vowed to roll it back. This change was reflected in a dramatic improvement in his polling numbers. On October 25, 2016 the Republican presidential nominee hosted a breakfast with a small group of Cuban American leaders and listened to their concerns. Later that same day he received a formal and public endorsement of the Brigade 2506 Bay of Pigs Association in Little Havana. Trump’s support among Cuban-American voters in Florida was at 52 percent, up from 33 percent in September, prior to the change on Cuba policy, according to Andres Oppenheimer days before the election. On the eve of the Presidential election the New York businessman tweeted the following pledge:

Today in Florida, I pledged to stand with the people of Cuba and Venezuela in their fight against oppression- cont: https://t.co/8eELqk2wUw

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8, 2016

On election day the Pew Research Center placed the percentage of Cuban Americans voting for Donald Trump at 54% and that is asserted by some to be a conservative estimate.

Let us do the math if as some claim 570,878 Cuban Americans voted in the 2016 election and Mr. Trump saw a 21 point shift in support that correlates with his announced change in Cuba policy this translated to 119,884 additional votes. A total of  308,274 Cuban Americans voted for Mr. Donald Trump. Now Mauricio Claver-Carone makes the case that the actual percentage maybe above 60%.

Not only does that overall number increase to 342,527 but also the number of Cuban Americans that switched their vote in favor of the New York businessman after he rejected Obama's Cuba policy is also higher at 154,137 votes.

Considering that President Elect Trump's margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was just 119,970 votes and the argument is not just that Cuban Americans were critical to the New York businessman's victory but that the dramatic increase in support was linked to U.S. Cuba policy and its rejection by a large number of Cuban American voters according to exit polls. At the low range the shift in that vote alone, possibly Cuba policy single issue voters, was at a minimum 86 votes short of providing the margin for taking Florida or at the higher end exceeded it by 34,167 votes.

If the Florida International University Cuba Poll were accurate and a majority of voting Cuban Americans supported Obama's Cuba policy then President Elect Trump would not have seen a 19 point surge in support when he promised to rollback President Obama's Cuba policy. Furthermore in South Florida one would not have seen all the well financed anti-embargo candidates running for Federal office defeated by crushing margins, even in majority Democrat districts.

There are those now who claim that the Cuban American vote was not a decisive factor in Trump's victory in Florida. They are wrong. This is not a matter of opinion but of the course of events over the past seven months and the math explained above. 

The Latino Decisions poll used by those making this claim is problematic for a number of reasons such as: it being sponsored by the National Council of La Raza that has a vested interest in pushing a particular narrative, it is a push poll with questions that provide information that would negatively impact the Latino vote for Republicans and finally no questions were asked about Obama's Cuba policy and how it would impact the vote. They could have also asked some of the following questions:

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton after learning that she pressed President Obama to normalize relations with the Castro dictatorship and remove economic sanctions with no regards to the human rights situation in Cuba? 

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton after learning that not only did President Bill Clinton shake hands with Fidel Castro in 2000 and open up cash and carry trade with Cuba a few months later but also met with and warmly received Raul Castro in 2015 in New York City? 

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton after learning that the Cuba policy she lobbied for in the Obama Administration approved deals that led to discrimination against Cuban Americans because of their national origin denying them equal treatment because American companies Carnival and American Airlines wanted to bend over backwards to Cuban government demands?

If Latino Decisions had asked these question and as it did with their push poll questions informing on Republican hostility to President Obama's executive orders on immigration then the depth of Cuban American outrage could have been reflected in the polling and so many would not have been surprised on election day.